Iranians will be going to the polls shortly to elect a replacement for Ebrahim Ra’isi, the president who left his term unfinished when he perished in a helicopter crash in May. With barely 24 hours left before the vote, reformist candidate Mas’ud Pezeshkian appears to be in the lead in public sentiment, the overall assessment of most observers, and a newly published voter survey. Among the other candidates still in the race, the unpopular Sa’id Jalili is a surprise second, but actions and statements by the country’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) suggest its preferred man is Majles Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, currently in third place. Rarely, if ever, does the IRGC fail to get what it wants in the Islamic Republic. Regardless of who wins, however, no future president of the country, including Pezeshkian, will be willing to challenge the supreme leader’s demand for continuity over change.
Among Iranian voters who plan to show up on election day, the clear favorite has been the reformist candidate. According to the latest poll by ISPA (the Iranian Students Polling Association) published on 26 June, he currently has 33.1 percent of the voting electorate, followed by 28.8 percent for Jalili and 19.1 percent for Qalibaf, a scenario that makes a runoff a very real possibility. The two principlist candidates who have since dropped out, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani and Amir-Hosein Qazizadeh-Hashemi, each had less than 3 percent, but both were ahead of Mostafa Purmohammadi, who was dead last with less than 2 percent. These numbers could be subject to change based on the phenomenon of “shy” voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters what candidate they will actually be voting for. (The phenomenon may explain Donald Trump’s shock victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential race.) Some may also have been “shy” about intending to participate, but if they do, it is believed a majority of their votes would go to Pezeshkian. Azar Mansuri, the leader of the Reformist Front, has indicated she and her colleagues will be encouraging voters to pull the lever for Pezeshkian, but she sounds less than enthusiastic, noting that she would not reproach anyone if they chose to sit out the election.
The excitement and intrigue is far greater within the principlist camp, or what their partisans are calling the “revolutionary front.” For one, Purmohammadi drew a sharp rebuke from Ahmad Khatami, the hardline cleric who is one of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s deputies as the Friday prayer leader of Tehran, for suggesting Ra’isi might have changed direction had he remained alive. Indeed, all the candidates had been warned that criticism of the person, administration or policies of Ebrahim Ra’isi was off-limits. Given ISPA’s results, however, Khatami need not have bothered because Purmohammadi is not polling well despite having provided some of the campaign’s more entertaining moments.
Undoubtedly, with the “cover” candidates Zakani and Qazizadeh-Hashemi having served whatever purpose they were intended to serve and now having made the “sacrifice” of bowing out, the biggest head-to-head battle in the so-called revolutionary front is now between Qalibaf and Jalili, the latter being the candidate of choice for the ultra-hardliners of the Paydari Front. The hardliners have been defending their man against both conservatives and reformists who have alleged that he was not well liked by Qasem Soleimani, the near-legendary former commander of the IRGC Quds Force assassinated by the U.S. in January 2020. Even from beyond the grave, Soleimani’s name still has political utility. Not only that, under IRGC top brass such as Soleimani’s successor, Esma’il Qa’ani, the aversion to Jalili seems to continue; or perhaps it may be more a preference for Qalibaf. At any rate, news sources suggest that Qa’ani attempted unsuccessfully to convince Jalili to withdraw and throw his support to Qalibaf, an issue that came to light in a social media spat between a Qalibaf fan and a Jalili partisan. With an indirect dig at Qa’ani, an article on the Paydari Front’s Raja News site reminded whoever cared to read that the “martyr” Soleimani had reminded the IRGC rank and file of Ruhollah Khomeini’s strict injunction to the armed forces against involvement in partisan politics.
Outwardly, at least, IRGC Commander Hosein Salami seemed to be in compliance with those instructions, not naming any preferred candidate and only reminding the next president that he should follow in Ra’isi’s footsteps. (The candidate who does not answer to that description is Pezeshkian.) Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, has not been quite as diffident as his superior in endorsing a candidate. In remarks quoted by a social media user, he allegedly said that no leader in the country could match Qalibaf in terms of executive experience. Tactically speaking, it would make sense for the “revolutionary front” if Jalili stepped aside in favor of Qalibaf because, as some have pointed out, with Jalili staying in, Pezeshkian would stand to win some of Qalibaf’s voters, but the reverse scenario is highly unlikely.
