Three days before the presidential election, while debates linger over past issues without offering practical solutions, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has delivered remarks that seem to set the policy direction for the post-election period, regardless of the outcome. It appears that the Guardian Council’s approval of a single reformist candidate, even in the unlikely event of his ultimate victory, offers little hope for significant change, particularly on critical issues such as nuclear negotiations with the West.
In recent days, Mohammad-Javad Zarif’s vigorous campaigning for reformist candidate Mas’ud Pezeshkian has reignited the tensions between reformists and principlists reminiscent of the 2013 presidential election and Hasan Rouhani’s two terms. Pezeshkian’s supporters have seized this moment to underscore the harsh impact of sanctions and the detrimental effects of hardline obstruction of Rouhani’s efforts to secure economic relief through engagement with the West. Against this backdrop, in his Eid al-Ghadir speech, Khamenei lauded the late Ebrahim Ra’isi’s strategy of relying on domestic capacities. He suggested that Ra’isi could have resolved many national problems had his life not been cut short.
Khamenei’s criticism of politicians who regard the U.S. as the sole solution for progress clearly targets the Rouhani administration and its allies, signaling a preference for policies that do not tie the nation’s economic fate to Western negotiations but instead focus on domestic strengths and broader engagement with neighboring and Eastern countries. Highlighting traits like diligence and a strong adherence to revolutionary principles as characteristics of an ideal candidate, Khamenei also advised the future president against appointing anyone even slightly opposed to the revolution or those who place their hopes in the U.S. This has led observers on social media to speculate about Khamenei’s potential undermining of Pezeshkian or his endorsement of candidates like Sa’id Jalili and Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. Given that Pezeshkian has consistently reaffirmed his allegiance, at least in word, to the supreme leader and the pre-established policies of the Nezam, it is difficult to conclude that Khamenei’s speech was intended to undermine him. Moreover, such an interpretation would imply that Khamenei is indirectly criticizing the Guardian Council. Nevertheless, despite reformist assertions that a president can effect change, Khamenei’s message suggests a continuity of core policies and even hints at his influence over the future president’s cabinet selections.
Khamenei’s recent speeches also reflect his concerns about the legitimacy and stability of the regime in the eyes of the international community. He has emphasized that high voter turnout would bolster the Islamic Republic’s image and dash the hopes of its adversaries. Meanwhile, posts on his social media accounts have reiterated that each vote enhances the Nezam’s “credibility and immunity.” Past actions by the Guardian Council, particularly their exclusion of prominent reformist candidates, suggested that the Nezam prioritized consolidating power over boosting participation. However, this election marked a departure from previous practices.
Observers, closely analyzing the Guardian Council’s strategy, particularly their exclusion of outspoken and prominent moderate and reformist figures such as Ali Larijani, Eshaq Jahangiri, and Abbas Akhundi, questioned whether the inclusion of a loyal and less controversial reformist candidate was designed to increase voter turnout without posing significant risks. The latest poll by ISPA (Iranian Students Polling Agency) indicates a definite participation rate of 43.9 percent, which does not represent a significant increase from previous elections. Regardless of the Guardian Council’s underlying motives, the candidacy of Pezeshkian has effectively re-engaged the reformist elite, who had previously disengaged from electoral politics. This move not only boosts the regime’s image of internal stability for the international audience but also consolidates unity within the regime, potentially easing any divisions that might arise following Khamenei’s death.
